Peak season is not a surprise, yet every year shippers are caught by rolled bookings and spot rates that double in a month. The difference between a smooth Q4 and a chaotic one is decided in July. This is the planning cycle we run with our clients.
July: forecast and commit
Share a weekly volume forecast for August to November, even if it is rough. Forecasts let us lock named-account allocations with carriers, which are honoured when the market tightens. Commit to a core lane strategy: one primary carrier and one back-up per trade.
August: pull forward what you can
Anything that can ship in August should. Rates are lower, space is available and you build a buffer against September blank sailings. Consider rail from China for mid-urgency cargo; it fills the gap between ocean and air at a fraction of air cost.
September to October: manage exceptions
Expect blank sailings and equipment imbalances. Our operations desk monitors carrier notices daily and re-routes cargo before rollovers happen. Keep a small air-freight budget for genuinely critical SKUs so a single delay does not stop a launch.
A note on contracts
Fixed-rate contracts protect you from spikes but can leave you at the back of the queue when carriers prioritise spot cargo. A blended approach, part contract and part index-linked, has served our clients best in the last three peak seasons.
